Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia are likely to head up the Moderate camp. In no small part on account of those three states, the Arab League is already attempting to counter the money Iran is providing to Hezbollah for Lebanon’s reconstruction. "This is a war over the hearts and mind of the Lebanese, which Arabs should not lose to the Iranians this time," a senior Arab League official explained. Concern over Iranian hegemony could tend to erode the longstanding Arab historical narrative, particularly as the Moderate effort is led by two countries that have entered into peace treaties with Israel.

Negotiating Obstacles:

The biggest danger of a breakdown in negotiations would come from an attempt by Lebanon to link a peace agreement to overall Middle East peace. With Syrian and Palestinian demands likely irreconcilable for the time being, such linkage could only preclude a bilateral peace agreement between Lebanon and Israel. Syria would seek to bring the Golan Heights into the calculus while radical Palestinian groups would seek a “right of return” of all Palestinian refugees and their descendants to Israel. Both would greatly complicate the diplomatic calculus and the latter demand would be a “deal breaker.”

In addition to linkage, Lebanon could seek the fulfillment of prior conditions before proceeding with possible peace talks. Lebanon could seek that Israel turn over a portion of the disputed Shebaa Farms area to Lebanon as a gesture of good faith. It could seek that Israel turn over control of that area to the United Nations in advance. Early in the Egyptian-Israeli talks, Egypt demanded a guarantee that Israel would commit in advance to turning over all of the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt. Later, Egypt requested that Israel demonstrate its commitment to peace by turning over the West Bank to Jordan and Gaza Strip to Egypt before any agreement was reached. Afterward, Egypt sought a transfer of the town of El Arish as a “good faith” gesture. Historically, such gestures have gone unrewarded in the Middle East. Most recently, Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in 2005 did little to mitigate terrorist attacks launched from there.